Fatah Conference, Palestinian Reconciliation, and Syria
Al-Farabi was going through old papers, documents, etc. this weekend to flush out what he no longer needs. He came across a prescient article by As’ad Abu Khalil, or better known in the blogging world as Angry Arab. Abu Khalil, writing in 2004, speculates the post-Arafat era in Palestinian politics:
“It is certain that no one man (or woman) will emerge as the sole undisputed Palestinian leader in the near future. That will take years. All potential successors have been killed — one by one — by Israel over the years. A few other possible successors have been undermined by Israeli and American preference for them. That would doom the chances for President Bush’s favorite, Mahmoud Abbas (nom de guerre Abu Mazen). It is more likely that several leaders and factions will compete to dominate Palestinian policies and plans. That will only ensure that the future path of Palestinian politics will be more — perhaps much more — radical and militant than what we witnessed in the era of Arafat. There may come a time when Israel and the United States look back and consider Arafat a statesman in comparison with what may transpire in the post-Arafat era.”
Although Abu Mazen did emerge as Arafat’s successor, his recent reign is viewed by many Palestinian as illegitimate. The differing situation in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and the violent and rhetorical split between Fatah and HAMAS speaks to the competing visions Abu Khalil foretold of.
Fatah is currently going through internal revisions (through the Fatah conference held in the first week of August). This conference is causing quite a stir, namely because of the impossible logistics behind it. First, a large number of Fatah members are a part of the Palestinian Diaspora. Most of them will face Israeli checkpoints before reaching the conference which is being held in the West Bank. The possibility of being detained will deter some members from attending. Then there is the issue of Fatah members in the Gaza Strip. HAMAS could withhold Fatah members from leaving Gaza. Now appearing short-sighted, the “iron-fist policy” of cracking down on HAMAS in the West Bank might be the only motivation HAMAS needs to do the same to Fatah before the conference. Here’s where Syria can play a part in reconciliation.
Recently, Abu Mazen met with Bashar al-Assad to persuade him to leverage his influence with HAMAS to not cause any trouble in the days ahead. This development is one to watch. As Egypt becomes increasingly viewed as a tainted broker in the Fatah-HAMAS mediation talks, a third party will need to emerge for progress to occur. Syria is obviously viewed more closely with HAMAS, but if Damascus does play a key role in brokering reconciliation, this might signal a significant change within Fatah.
Numerous Western analysts of Middle Eastern politics make a faulty assumption: For the intra-Palestinian conflict to end, HAMAS will need to moderate its position towards Israel and its Fatah brothers. Al-Farabi sees a strong possibility for a different conclusion. The eventual triumph of the younger Fatah members over the old guard is inevitable and a healthy political process. Nevertheless, al-Farabi suspects based on conversations he had in the West Bank in 2006 that the younger generation’s vision is more aligned with HAMAS then their elders would like to admit. Does this mean that reconciliation is more likely as this shift takes place? Perhaps. However, there are many barriers in place for Fatah’s old guard to remain in control. It may take past this coming conference but when a new Fatah takes its first step forward, don’t be surprised if HAMAS (with the urging of Syria) accompanies it. This hypothetical, rarely talked about, will spell a more hard-lined approach for Palestinians at a time when they can least afford it.
